The p(doom) database · person
Tim Spalding’s p(doom)
0%
In their words
Tim Spalding (Founder of LibraryThing; lead developer at TalpaSearch) put their p(doom) at 0% (p-doom within 50 years, 50 years), on X on Nov 28, 2023.
My 50-year p-doom is 0.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says his 1,000-year number is higher, unquantified.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.