The p(doom) database · person
Quintin Pope’s p(doom)
4%
In their words
Quintin Pope (ML researcher; alignment optimist) put their p(doom) at 4% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Mar 25, 2026.
Well, my P(Doom) is 4%, so yes, both of those things need to be imagined.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Debate recorded in 2023 on Twitter Spaces; published on Doom Debates in 2026.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.