The p(doom) database · person
Justin Halford’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Justin Halford (Writer on X) put their p(doom) at >50%, on X on Aug 6, 2026.
my p(doom) is > 50% at this point The internet is going to destabilize and a lone actor with a $20k bio printer and a sufficiently capable open source model will be able to churn out pathogens of pre-specified characteristics.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Mainly bio-risk from open models.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | >50% | p(doom) | x |
| Nov 25, 2023 | ~5-10% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.