The p(doom) database · person
Dima Krasheninnikov’s p(doom)
≥10%
In their words
Dima Krasheninnikov (Researcher, Anthropic) put their p(doom) at ≥10% (out-of-control AI kills everyone), on X on Sep 11, 2026.
believe there's plausibly a ≥10% chance that a future out-of-control AI kills everyone
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Hedged with "plausibly."
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.