The p(doom) database · person
Tomas Pueyo’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Tomas Pueyo (Writer (Uncharted Territories newsletter)) put their p(doom) at ~10%, on X on Sep 9, 2026.
My p(doom) is ~10% I sometimes ask ppl their number, and then: What do you do differently given that?
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.