The p(doom) database · person
David Manheim’s p(doom)
~50%
In their words
David Manheim (Founder, ALTER; superforecaster emeritus) put their p(doom) at ~50%, on X on May 18, 2025.
which is why my overall p(doom) is closer to 50%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.