The p(doom) database · person
Joep Meindertsma’s p(doom)
40%
In their words
Joep Meindertsma (Founder, PauseAI) put their p(doom) at 40% (AI leads to major disasters, perhaps a few years), in an article on Feb 16, 2024.
Die mogelijkheid schat hij op 40 procent. „Ik twijfel continu, maar de kans dat het fout gaat is groot”
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Journalist's paraphrase of his estimate in a profile he reviewed; adds "I doubt constantly, but the chance it goes wrong is large."
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.