The p(doom) database · person
Dominik Lukes’s p(doom)
<0.1%
In their words
Dominik Lukes (Writer on language models) put their p(doom) at <0.1%, on X on Jan 4, 2025.
my p(doom) - such as it is significantly below 0.1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.