The p(doom) database · person
Malcolm Wright’s p(doom)
<1%
In their words
Malcolm Wright (Marketing professor) put their p(doom) at <1%, on X on Sep 26, 2026.
Yeah for me p(doom) < 1%. Not zero because something could go really wrong by accident, but I don’t think it likely.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Adds that he thinks extinction is more likely without AI.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.