The p(doom) database · person
Rob Leclerc’s p(doom)
0
In their words
Rob Leclerc (Founder, deep-tech venture fund ($300M AUM); neural nets since 1999) put their p(doom) at 0, on X on Sep 16, 2026.
i’m an accelerationist and my p(doom) is zero.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Same day: "i don’t believe in x-risk and my p(doom) is zero, but even paperclips have killed people."
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.