Han Sang-ki’s p(doom)
In their words
Han Sang-ki (CEO, Tech Frontier; early Korean AI researcher) put their p(doom) at >20%, rising (collapse of human civilisation (not necessarily everyone dying), in his lifetime), in an interview on Oct 18, 2026.
On the probability of doom, P-doom, I think mine is over 20% and it keeps rising.
Original: 종말 확률 'P-doom'과 관련, 저는 20% 이상이고 계속 늘어나고 있다고 생각한다
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Quoted directly by AI Post Korea from his OKKY developer talk; the talk may predate the article. Defines doom as civilisation collapsing, not everyone dying.
In context
Among building AI in the database (37 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.