The p(doom) database · person
Scott Alexander’s p(doom)
33%
In their words
Scott Alexander (Writer, Astral Codex Ten) put their p(doom) at 33% (human extinction from unaligned superintelligent AI), in an article on Mar 14, 2023.
if you force me to give an estimate it's probably around 33%; I think it's very plausible that we die, but more likely that we survive (at least for a little while)
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given only "if forced"; explicitly not a precise prediction.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.