The p(doom) database · person
Blake Lemoine’s p(doom)
0.015%
In their words
Blake Lemoine (Former Google engineer (LaMDA sentience claim)) put their p(doom) at 0.015% (extinction, with AI), on X on Sep 13, 2026.
My p(doom) = 0.0001 without AI and 0.00015 with.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given as fractions: 0.01% without AI, 0.015% with AI, so AI adds 0.005 points. On Sept 9 he wrote "my p(doom) < 0.01" (x.com/cajundiscordian/status/2097765210677293195).
In context
Among ex-frontier labs in the database (8 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.