15 (15.ai)’s p(doom)
In their words
15 (15.ai) (Pseudonymous computer scientist and software engineer, founder of 15.ai) put their p(doom) at <1% (humans extinct due to AI (his own operationalisation in a follow-up tweet), by 2100), on X on Sep 9, 2026.
<1% My P(doom) hasn't changed much. The Navier-Stokes proof is awesome but I don't really buy the doomsday "hype" surrounding it
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Pseudonymous founder of 15.ai (Wikipedia article), direct reply to "what's your P(doom)?". Follow-up Sept 10: "P(humans are extinct by 2100 due to AI) < 1%". Both posts read directly.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.