The p(doom) database · person
David Shapiro’s p(doom)
0.22%
In their words
David Shapiro (AI YouTuber and author) put their p(doom) at 0.22%, on X on Sep 6, 2024.
My p(doom) is 0.22%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2024 | 0.22% | p(doom) | x |
| Aug 27, 2024 | 0.12% | p(doom) | x |
| Aug 23, 2024 | <2% | doom via ASI that is soon, agentic, uncontrollable and hostile (his own four-gate model) | blog |
| Aug 20, 2024 | 12.70% | p(doom) | x |
| Aug 16, 2024 | 30% | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.