The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Casey Muratori’s p(doom)
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What they said
Casey Muratori was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Jun 25, 2026) and did not give a number.
I hate to disappoint you. As with the things that I said before, I don't think I can actually put a probability on it because of the inability to know all of the specifics of what people are actually working on.
Doom Debates ~55:10, asked 'what is your P-Doom'. Episode title 'Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is Unacceptable' is his threshold argument, not his estimate. Quote from Substack auto-transcript. Tech-twitter/YouTube figure, not crypto.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Casey Muratori states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.