The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Lila Ibrahim’s p(doom)
?
What they said
Lila Ibrahim was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Aug 6, 2026) and did not give a number.
It's not zero. Anything beyond that is just me guessing … That's the engineer in me.
Asked by Fortune how likely an extinction-level outcome is. Signed the 2023 CAIS extinction-risk statement.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Lila Ibrahim states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.