The p(doom) database · person
Noah Smith’s p(doom)
0.1%
In their words
Noah Smith (Economist, Noahpinion) put their p(doom) at 0.1% (total human extinction, by 2050), on a podcast on Jan 5, 2026.
My probability of total extinction by 2050 is so low that Daniel Kahneman would yell at me for giving a number. It's 0.1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Civilizational collapse ~1%. Separately gives 96% that technology as a whole eventually ends humanity as we know it, which he doesn't necessarily consider bad.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.