The p(doom) database · person
Paul Crowley’s p(doom)
>80%
In their words
Paul Crowley (Cryptographer, Google) put their p(doom) at >80% (p(doom) from AI), in an article on Mar 11, 2024.
well above eighty per cent
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Reported by The New Yorker from a dinner; the quoted phrase is his.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.