Andrew McAfee’s p(doom)
In their words
Andrew McAfee (Principal research scientist, MIT Sloan; co-director, MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy) put their p(doom) at ~0% (human extinction from AI on the current course of pursuing superintelligence), on a podcast on Sep 17, 2026.
I put a, I put a tilde in front of my zero because never say never, but rounding error, 0%.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Diary of a CEO "Great AI Debate"; written in an envelope before the show. Quote from the HappyScribe transcript.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.