The p(doom) database · person
Connor Leahy’s p(doom)
≈99%
In their words
Connor Leahy (CEO, Conjecture) put their p(doom) at ≈99% (AI doom), on a podcast on Jul 21, 2022.
you could be at 99% probability of doom, but have like five or 10% error bars. — Yes, that's kind of my thinking.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Host's framing, which he affirmed; "not as pessimistic as Eliezer but pretty close."
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.