The p(doom) index
One number for how likely the people, the experts and the market think an AI catastrophe is. Today it is 13.0 (Sep 29, 2026).
How it is built
index = 0.5 × people + 0.3 × experts + 0.2 × market.
- People (10%): the median of each person’s latest self-stated p(doom) in the database (223 people). Ranges count at their midpoint, open-ended “>X%” at X. Surveys, markets, polls and AI models’ own answers are left out.
- Experts (17.5%): the median of the latest expert surveys, one per series (for example AI Impacts’ survey of AI researchers).
- Market (13.8%): the Manifold market “Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100”. Polymarket has no extinction market.
History
| Date | Index | People | Experts | Market | People counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 13.0 | 10% | 17.5% | 13.8% | 223 |
| 2026-09-28 | 19.9 | 23.8% | 17.5% | 13.8% | 102 |
| 2026-09-23 | 17.5 | 25% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 101 |
| 2026-09-22 | 17.5 | 25% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 100 |
| 2026-09-21 | 17.5 | 25% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 99 |
Why it moves
It moves when someone states a new number, when a new survey lands, when the market trades, and when the database grows. On Sept 29, 2026 the database widened from mostly AI-safety voices to builders, investors, officials and people on X. The people median fell from 23.8% (Sept 28) to 10% (Sept 29) because the sample changed, not because anyone changed their mind. Every change is logged in the changelog.
The median by stake
Each person’s latest number, grouped by who they worked for when they said it (public affiliation only).
| Stake | People | Median p(doom) |
|---|---|---|
| building AI | 31 | 0.5% |
| investors | 12 | 1.5% |
| independent | 63 | 5% |
| government | 5 | 7.5% |
| media | 34 | 10% |
| ex-frontier labs | 8 | 12.5% |
| frontier labs | 20 | 12.5% |
| academics | 22 | 15% |
| safety orgs | 28 | 50% |
Read it as a pattern in who says what, not as proof of anyone’s motives. Small groups move a lot with one new name.
Data
index.json (method and full history) · pdoom.json (every statement). CC-BY-4.0.