The p(doom) database · person
AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes’s p(doom)
~25%
In their words
AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes (AI-safety meme account) put their p(doom) at ~25%, on X on Nov 20, 2025.
My p(doom) is only ~25%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Earlier: 26% (2023-11-26, 2024-07-28) and 27% (2023-12-07).
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | ~25% | p(doom) | x |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 20–30% | p(doom) | x |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 10-80% (~25% weighted mean) | p(doom) | x |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 27% | p(doom) | x |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ~25% (1 in 4) | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.