The p(doom) database · person
Meaghie Walker Williams’s p(doom)
90%
In their words
Meaghie Walker Williams (Coast Salish matriarch; writer on X) put their p(doom) at 90%, on X on Sep 15, 2026.
My p-doom is 90 percent and has been for about 4 years
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Says it has held for about four years, since meeting Michael Vassar.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.