The p(doom) database · person
Arthur Conmy’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Arthur Conmy (Researcher, Anthropic (previously Google DeepMind)) put their p(doom) at >10% (p(doom) without a slowdown or pause), on X on Sep 22, 2026.
I'm a bit late to the chatter but do think that without slowdown or pause, p(doom)>0.1
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional: "without slowdown or pause".
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.