The p(doom) database · person
Nathan Labenz’s p(doom)
10–90%
In their words
Nathan Labenz (Host, The Cognitive Revolution) put their p(doom) at 10–90% (p(doom), unspecified), on a podcast on Apr 19, 2025.
I usually answer when people ask this in general is 10 to 90%. And what I mean by that is basically, like, I really have no idea.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Puts most weight on the lower end.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.