The p(doom) database · person
Ian Bremmer’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Ian Bremmer (Political scientist; president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (next five years), on X on Sep 12, 2026.
for the next five years: my p(doom) is close to zero my p(ai causes social, economic, and national security challenges we aren’t remotely ready for) is 100%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
"Close to zero" recorded as ≈0% for five years. He puts 100% on AI causing challenges "we aren’t remotely ready for".
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.