The p(doom) database · person
Nick Guerrera’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Nick Guerrera (Independent software engineer, formerly Microsoft) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Sep 11, 2026.
I will keep using AI, firm in my belief that p-doom is close to zero
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
"Close to zero" recorded as ≈0%.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.