The p(doom) database · person
Casey Newton’s p(doom)
5%
In their words
Casey Newton (Journalist; co-host, Hard Fork) put their p(doom) at 5% (p(doom), unspecified), in an article on 2023-12.
Tech reporter Casey Newton has a p(doom) score of 5%
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Reported by Fast Company; not his own words in a transcript.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.