The p(doom) database · person
Nikola Jurkovic’s p(doom)
>50%
In their words
Nikola Jurkovic (AI safety researcher, METR) put their p(doom) at >50% (p(doom) from AI), on X on Nov 23, 2025.
My P(doom) from AI is more than 50%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.