Yann LeCun’s p(doom)
In their words
Yann LeCun (Chief AI scientist, Meta; Turing Award) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (existential risk from AI), on X on Apr 13, 2026.
Most "leading AI figures" think this p(doom) estimates are complete bullshit and the existential risk is essentially zero.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Declines to give a figure: says all estimates are "pulled out of thin air" and it makes little sense to assign a probability to an event we have agency over. The "<0.01%" on other lists is not his wording.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.