The p(doom) database · person
Haseeb Qureshi’s p(doom)
≤5%
In their words
Haseeb Qureshi (Managing partner, Dragonfly (crypto VC)) put their p(doom) at ≤5%, on X on Sep 18, 2026.
My P(doom) has gone down significantly, probably 5% or less.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Same post: "I had a P(doom) ~= 10%, which I consider very high." Says the last couple of weeks' "preference cascade" should lower everyone's.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.