The p(doom) database · person
Marcus Williams’s p(doom)
70%
In their words
Marcus Williams (Safety Oversight, OpenAI) put their p(doom) at 70% (human extinction, if no regulation or slowdown, next 3 years), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
70% in the next 3 years if there isn't regulation/slowdown although i think regulation/slowdown is very possible
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Conditional on no regulation or coordinated slowdown.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.