The p(doom) database · person
Gustav Dahlander’s p(doom)
~50%
In their words
Gustav Dahlander (Swedish journalist (SVT)) put their p(doom) at ~50%, on X on Sep 9, 2026.
My personal P(doom) is maybe 50%, but most people that are smarter puts it way lower, so I suppose it's worth proceeding. With the utmost care. Which isn't what is happening right now.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.