The p(doom) database · person
Dario Amodei’s p(doom)
25%
In their words
Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic) put their p(doom) at 25% (things go really, really badly), in an interview on Sep 17, 2025.
There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly … 75% chance that things go really, really well.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Axios AI+ DC Summit. Top of his earlier 10–25% range.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2025 | 25% | things go really, really badly | interview |
| Oct 6, 2023 | 10–25% | civilization getting substantially derailed | x |
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.