The p(doom) database · person
Zvi Mowshowitz’s p(doom)
~70%
In their words
Zvi Mowshowitz (Writer, Don't Worry About the Vase) put their p(doom) at ~70% (p(doom), unspecified), on a podcast on Sep 6, 2025.
Nathan: last time we spoke, I believe your p(doom) was 70%. Has it ticked down at all? Zvi: More higher than down from previous assessment, but not enough to move to 0.8, certainly.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Up from his 60% of 2023.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | ~70% | p(doom), unspecified | podcast |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 60% | p(doom) | market |
| Aug 18, 2023 | 60% | AI doom, unspecified | article |
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.