The p(doom) database · person
Alan Chan’s p(doom)
46%
In their words
Alan Chan (PhD student, Mila (AI safety and governance)) put their p(doom) at 46% (p(doom) from AI), on a podcast on May 5, 2023.
P(doom). I think I did this calculation yesterday or a few days ago with a bunch of friends, something 46%. It's quite high, I think, but could be higher.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Asked by co-guest Max Kaufmann.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.