The p(doom) database · person
Peter Tarr’s p(doom)
>0%, <1%
In their words
Peter Tarr (Investment manager; ex stock and options broker (@ProfitsTaken, ~83k followers)) put their p(doom) at >0%, <1% (AI p(doom)), on X on Sep 29, 2026.
FWIW, to me AI p(doom) is best expressed as: 0 < p(doom) < 1%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Open interval: above zero, below 1%.
In context
Among investors in the database (15 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.