The p(doom) database · person
Max Spero’s p(doom)
≪1%
In their words
Max Spero (Co-founder, Pangram Labs ('slop janitor @pangram')) put their p(doom) at ≪1%, on X on Feb 12, 2025.
but also my current p doom is <<0.01
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Given as a fraction (same post uses 0.8), i.e. well under 1%.
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.