The p(doom) database · person
Grady Booch’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Grady Booch (Software engineering pioneer (UML); IBM Fellow) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Sep 10, 2026.
My p(doom) remains asymptotically close to zero. If your p(doom) is significantly higher, I can respect that.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
"Asymptotically close to zero" recorded as ≈0%. Posted twice the same day (second post corrects a typo).
In context
Among building AI in the database (31 people), the median is 0.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.