The p(doom) database · person
Daniel Faggella’s p(doom)
~40%
In their words
Daniel Faggella (Founder, Emerj; 'Worthy Successor' writer) put their p(doom) at ~40% (next 20 years), on X on Feb 10, 2024.
My p(doom) in the next 20 years is like... 40%-ish.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.