The p(doom) database · person
Dirk Bruere’s p(doom)
~50%
In their words
Dirk Bruere (Scientist/engineer, author) put their p(doom) at ~50%, on X on May 17, 2024.
My P(doom) is about 50%
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2024 | ~50% | p(doom) | x |
| Dec 13, 2023 | ~5% | p(doom) from ASI | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.