Ryan Dahl’s p(doom)
In their words
Ryan Dahl (Creator of Node.js, co-founder of Deno) put their p(doom) at 0.01% (extinction, next 10 years), on X on Sep 14, 2026.
here are my priors for various doom scenarios in next 10 years p(extinction) = 0.0001
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Opens with "10% chance of extinction indeed is ridiculous". Posted three edited versions that night; p(extinction) = 0.0001 in all of them. Same list: p(terminator war) 0.0002, p(>25% of white collar work disappears) 0.95.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.