The p(doom) database · asked and declined
Shane Cahill’s p(doom)
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What they said
Shane Cahill was asked for a p(doom) on the record (Oct 5, 2026) and did not give a number.
Speaker, I don't wish to be imprecise in relation to the question of quantifying, I don't have our framework in front of me right now, but I'd be pleased to follow up with you afterwards.
Asked at the New York City Council hearing (Oct 5, 2026) by Speaker Julie Menin to quantify the risk of the worst-case catastrophic scenario, speaking for their company. Quote as reported (Machine). Anthropic's Logan Graham was asked too and gave no number, but no verbatim answer was published.
Why this is here
The database records refusals as well as numbers. A refusal is not a number, so it never counts toward any median. If Shane Cahill states a number in public, it gets a row. What p(doom) means, and the case against it.