The p(doom) database · person
Michael P. Frank’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Michael P. Frank (Reversible computing researcher) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Dec 14, 2023.
My p(doom) remains at near zero, or negative (as in, AI decreases our total x-risk).
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | ≈0% | p(doom) | x |
| Dec 13, 2023 | essentially zero | p(doom) | x |
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.