The p(doom) database · person
John Sherman’s p(doom)
75%
In their words
John Sherman (Host, For Humanity) put their p(doom) at 75% (p(doom), unspecified), on a podcast on Sep 4, 2024.
John starts out at 75%, unrelated to their numbers.
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
From the show's own episode description; transcript not read.
In context
Among media in the database (34 people), the median is 10%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.