The p(doom) database · person
David Wood’s p(doom)
up to 40%
In their words
David Wood (Chair, London Futurists; Executive Director, LEV Foundation) put their p(doom) at up to 40%, on X on Feb 11, 2025.
My p(doom) may be as high as 40% these days
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Phrased as 'may be as high as 40%'.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.