The p(doom) database · person
Kitten’s p(doom)
≥10%
In their words
Kitten (Pseudonymous account (@kitten_beloved)) put their p(doom) at ≥10% (p(doom) mainly via AI-enabled misuse by humans), on X on Feb 12, 2025.
My probability of doom is probably 10% or higher, but not because we lose control of an AI, because it enables a hostile human actor to do very destructive things
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.