The p(doom) database · person
Shane Legg’s p(doom)
5–50%
In their words
Shane Legg (Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind) put their p(doom) at 5–50% (human extinction within a year of human-level AI, within a year of human-level AI), in an interview on Jun 17, 2011.
Maybe 5%, maybe 50%. I don't think anybody has a good estimate of this.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Written Q&A before DeepMind was founded; no known updated number.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.