The p(doom) database · person
Nate Soares’s p(doom)
≥95%
In their words
Nate Soares (President, MIRI) put their p(doom) at ≥95% (humanity's extinction if current trends continue), in an interview on Aug 2, 2025.
at least 95%
Source · not yet re-checked against the primary source.
Originally in The Times (UK), quoted via TASS; conditional on no change of course. Told The Atlantic >50% within his lifetime.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.